你好世界

此博客将是我的价值投资博客vijourney.wordpress.com的,我希望你享受,让我知道,如果任何的翻译,因为我只学普通话,我不得不使用谷歌翻译翻译的中文语言版本的一切。我的一切都写在我的其他博客将尽快翻译,并在这个博客上发布为好。从这一点上,我将同时发布在英语和普通话的一切。

大家好,或对自己好,如果没有人在这里,我对自己说。反正这博客是怎么回事,主要是关于价值和特殊的情况下,投资,我会发布我买的每一个安全,所以我买了它,以及如何我看重它。讨论的是鼓励和批评的欢迎。我是比较新的投资,因此任何意见​​如何,我可以做一些更好的将是惊人的。

当我说主要是我可能偶尔会偏离到其他一些不同主题,包括奥地利学派经济学,体育,视频游戏,政治,时事等,几乎任何东西,困扰着我,我有一些思想。

整个我这样做的原因是因为我想的日志我的求购和出售,这样我可以回头看他们,学习好的和坏的决定,我的决定。如果人们发现这个博客有用/有帮助的越多越好。我发现,大多数人更有效地学习时,我们可以反弹的想法,相互的,特别是因为我一直在学习投资约3.5年,只有奉献了我自己2012年2月以来。

我欠了债感谢csinvesting.org和oldschoolvalue.com的。我已经学会了这两个网站的链接,资料,书籍,视频讲座,在这些网站上所有的书我已阅读相结合的讨论,我仍然这样做,特别是在追赶csinvesting。谢谢约翰·潮在六月

好吧,让我们开始这段旅程,希望我们可以互相学习,

贾森·里维拉

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Catching Up On Some More Links

Farnam Street-The World Is Much More Interesting Than Any One Discipline.

Wexboy-Tetragon Ready To Be A Star.

Sahara Investing-The Luxury Goods Market.

Oddball Stocks-Thoughts On Quantative Value Investing.

Valueinvestingblog.net-Investing In Japan: Late To The Party.

Valuewalk-Insurance Companies, Where Buybacks Are Key: Travelers.

Farnam Street-Mastery.

OTC Adventures-Value Investing Strategy And Unlisted Securities Part 1.

Whopper Investments-The Best Values Are Over The Counter Stocks So Is $OTCM A Great Value Too?

Ragnar Is A Pirate-Changing 13D’s At Trinity Place Holdings.

The Aleph Blog-On Insurance Investing Part 2.

Quotations Page-Persistence Quotes, my favorite is the Calvin Coolidge One:

Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.

Absoutely love that quote.

Mises.org-Cartman Shrugged: The Invisible Gnomes and The Invisible Hand In South Park.

CSInvesting-The Secret To Investing Success (Munger Tip).

Valueconferences.com-Adib Motiwala: Your Instructor At Small Cap Investing Summit 2013, hour long interview.

Updates, Looking For Anyone Who Might Want To Write A Guest Value Investing Article or Articles, And "Becoming So Good That You Cannot Be Ignored"

As you know over the past couple weeks I have been doing in depth research on a company and written an article that I planned to post on Monday.  I have several other companies I want to research and since in my personal account I am unfortunately fully invested at the moment, I need to make the best possible buy decision of the companies I am looking into before deciding which one(s) to buy into and came up with an idea today.

When I first started my blog and posting articles on Seeking Alpha I did a series of posts on Dole, Chiquita, and Fresh Del Monte comparing them and figuring out which one was the best buy at the time.  I have wanted to do another series of posts like that for a while now and decided that this is a perfect opportunity to do that.  Up to this point I have completely finished up one article, done a lot of research and probably will start to write an article on the next company next week some time, and have at least one for sure and maybe another company I want to do research on and write full articles on after that before I make my final buy decision(s).

As you might expect with the amount of research I do this process and my posting of articles may take a while so this is where I ask for some help from you.  While I am researching and writing my articles I am still going to keep posting links, but would like good content to keep flowing at least somewhat regularly on the blog while I am concentrating on researching and writing.

I am looking for anyone who would want to contribute an article, or articles, to be posted as guest posts on this blog.  I will give you full credit for the entire article and write an introduction introducing you a little bit to get you some recognition.  You will retain full ownership of the article and can post it anywhere else that you like.  I would really like to have newer investors who may want to start a blog some day but for some reason haven’t, to submit any write ups you might have to get you some recognition and some feedback on your articles so you can learn faster.  I wish I would have started writing my ideas down in depth a lot sooner because as I have talked about before I am shocked by how much better I have gotten just since last June when I stated this blog. I will consider any articles as long as it is a VALUE based investment idea, if it is of good quality, if it is your original written and researched idea, and you do not already have a blog.  Sorry value bloggers but I want to help new investors or people who do not have a blog already get better and get some recognition.

I do not care if you have just started out investing (Would actually prefer newer investors to get you some recognition and to help you learn faster) or have been doing this for years and may not have a blog but you would like to post something here to get a taste for blogging.  As long as I think the article is of good quality, you show some passion, and want to get better as an investor I will consider any article submitted.  The article does not have to be as in depth or as long as my articles either.  If you have multiple articles you would like to submit you are more than welcome to submit as many as you like.  I know that I am a bit weird in welcoming public criticism of my articles but it helps me learn faster.  To alleviate some of this concern I will also help you out by reading the article before posting it on this site and sending you an email with any thoughts, feedback, or advice I might have and keep them private just between us since I know a lot of people are afraid of public criticism, especially beginners.

As you know if you have been following the blog for any length of time one of my other passions is bettering education and helping others out as much as possible because of all the advice and help I have received from others online.  I have been thinking about this for a while and have finally decided that this is a good time to start this program and I hope a lot of you submit articles.  This is also going to become a regular thing so if you come up with an idea a month or months from now that you would like to submit for publishing please feel free to submit it.  Again, I would highly encourage especially newer investors and investors without blogs to submit articles not only for the recognition, but the sooner you start writing your investment ideas down the faster you will get better.

For any questions or if you would like to submit an article email me at my email address provided in the Contact Me page above and I hope to hear from many of you very soon.

Another quick update is that last week I received an email from the Value Investor’s Club about my application and that I had been rejected for admission to VIC again.  Once again this just serves as further motivation (As if I didn’t have enough already) to keep learning and getting better. On a side note Whopper Investments posted on Twitter that he has been accepted into the Value Investors Club so a big shout out and congratulations to a fellow value blogger for this impressive accomplishment.  I have heard that VIC accepts fewer than 10% of all applications received, I know most of the people on VIC are professionals, and I know of at least a couple individuals who have had their funds seeded by Joel Greenblatt (The founder of VIC and world renowned value investor) so getting accepted into VIC is a huge goal for a lot of us value investing bloggers and it is extremely impressive to get accepted.

I have always been the type of extremely competitive and self motivated person where I always pushed myself so hard (sometimes too hard and I have occasionally paid for it with health problems) to get better at whatever I was doing.  A couple examples are that 1) I remember when I was a teenager mowing the lawn and that I would time myself just to see if I could mow the lawn more efficiently and faster.  Not so I could go play sports, hang out with friends or a girlfriend, or do whatever else I was doing at the time, but just to get better at it. 2) When I worked at Burger King in high school, even if I was just washing dishes I always tried to figure out ways to get faster and better at it, even timing myself doing this as well.  This is how driven, some would say crazy including probably my wife, lol, I am about everything I do and when I saw this quote from Steve Martin it really resonated with me. Emphasis is mine.

“Nobody ever takes note of [my advice], because it’s not the answer they wanted to hear,” Martin said. “What they want to hear is ‘Here’s how you get an agent, here’s how you write a script,’ . . . but I always say, ‘Be so good they can’t ignore you.’ “

The article is from Lifehacker and you can click here to read the whole article about becoming a “craftsman” and how Mr. Martin went about becoming a comedic craftsman.  So my new favorite quote and goal as it pertains to me getting a job in the investment world, opening my own firm, learning Mandarin, or whatever else I do is to become so good at it that I cannot be ignored.

I will post some more links over the coming days as I have gotten way behind in sharing some of the sites I have been learning from and think that you could possibly learn from, and I hope in the mean time to see that a lot of you have submitted articles to be posted on the blog.

Catching Up On Links

I have just finished up my newest article and just need to edit and proofread a bit more and hope to have it up soon.  Over the next few days I will be posting a bunch of links since I have gotten way behind on this while researching other companies, hope you enjoy.

Yahoo-Business Insider-The Story of a Man Who Outsourced His Work To China So He Could Watch Cat Videos All Day.

Forbes-The Great Baupost Madoff Claim Trade That Made a Big Madoff Feeder Fund a Loser Again.

Oddball Stocks-More is Better? How Much Information is Really Needed To Invest?

Four Hour Work Week-How to Travel Through 20+ Countries With Free Room and Board.  Cannot vouch for this yet as I have not tried it and it seems a bit sketchy to me but if it really works and is safe that is a potentially great idea for travelers.

Wexboy-Where Is the Credit Opportunity in 2013?

Shadow Stock-Illiquid Stocks For Outsized Returns.

Old School Value-The Harder You Work The Luckier You Get.

Rodkelly.com-30+ Quotes From Charlie Munger.

Outward Branch-Heart To Heart With Value Investor Theodor Tonca.

Business Insider-China Hard Landing Presentation. What If China Land’s Hard?

A Company I Have Been Researching And Really Like Potentially Being Bought Out

Ark Restaurants Being Bought Out

Over the past couple weeks I have been researching and discarding dozens of companies to write articles on and potentially buy into.  Of those dozens of companies I decided to do further research on seven of the companies.  I ended up valuing three of the companies.  Of those three I ended up doing in depth research on two of the companies reading 5-10 years of annual reports and doing various other research so far.  One of the companies I am still doing research on and plan to write an article about.  The other was Ark Restaurants mentioned in the Readers Investment Ideas and Analysis Page above by reader DTEJD1997.

After discarding a bunch of other companies I remembered ARK being mentioned on the blog after I found them in a screen I did, found information that looked promising and started doing my normal in depth research on them.  I actually ended up starting to write an article about them, as I really liked their operations and management, and found them to be undervalued currently.  Valuing the business at 8X EBIT, adding cash, cash equivalents, short term investments, and $1 per share of NOL’s, and subtracting almost $1 per share in debt got me to a value of $26.91 per share which is the estimate I use for its intrinsic value.  This is the base estimate of value I was basing my article around.  So overall I thought very highly of the overall business as a potential investment.

I decided to scrap the article for now and wait to write the article and potentially buy into the company until the share price dropped though because I found ARK to be overvalued by my worst case scenario which estimated what I think the company would be worth if it dropped back down to its profitability levels from 2009-2011 when the company was struggling more.  Using the same basis as above, I found at 8X EBIT that ARK would be worth $10.13 in that situation, which is actually 20% higher than the low it reached during 2009-2011, as its EBIT % was only 2.23% on average over those three years.  In comparison this year ARK’s EBIT % jumped back up to pre-recession levels at 7.2% in 2012.

Got an email from DTEJD1997 this morning with this news that the company is potentially being bought out by Landry’s for $71 million or about $22 a share so it looks like I have missed out on this potential opportunity.  Actually I think that is a bit low and the buy price should probably be in the $23-$26 range for a truer intrinsic value but it is still a 22% premium to what the stock closed at yesterday.

Congratulations to DTEJD1997 on the find and hopefully the company can push for a little bit higher purchase price if they decide to sell.  For now I am off to keep researching another company I found but if you have any ideas you would like to share please feel free to post them in the Readers Investment Idea page above.

Questions For You All And Some Observations About Insurance Companies

I just stopped researching what is probably the tenth insurance company I have done at least cursory research on and I have come to a few conclusions after looking at insurance companies of all sizes.  I stopped research on this company because of its massive underwriting losses again.

  1. UNAM is the only company I have looked at that has had consistent consecutive underwriting profits for almost a decade now.
  2. The best companies besides UNAM have generally only had underwriting profits for 3 out of the past 10 years.
  3. Almost all of the other companies have had consistent underwriting losses over the past decade.
  4. Underwriting losses have generally gotten worse over the last few years.

Having noticed all of this I realized in my previous UNAM analysis write up that maybe I was making things too complex and wanted to ask your opinion on the matter.

  1. How truly difficult is generating consistent underwriting profits over the almost past decade during a soft insurance market which is what UNAM has done?
  2. Are the other insurance companies managements complete morons or are UNAM’s management and discipline just exceptional?
  3. Should the consistent underwriting profit override the low ROE and low investment returns at UNAM?

Also just out of curiosity, does anyone else find researching insurance companies and other financials tedious with the amount of lawyer talk and useless crap that fills the pages of the annuals and quarterlies just to make sure they do not get sued?

Looking forward to some discussion on this topic.